On Saturday, the Beavers will find themselves in Colorado fighting to remain bowl eligible. With a loss against Air Force, OSU would need to win out. With a win against the Air Force, the Beavers would need to beat either No. 18 Washington State or No. 13 Boise State to get to a bowl game.
The Beavers’ starting quarterback, Ben Gulbranson, since their previous loss to San Jose State, is looking ahead.
“I think you gotta talk it game by game. There’s no game ahead, there’s no game behind, it’s what’s next,” Gulbranson said.
In a season defined by the tumult of conference realignment and uncertainty of future opponents, there remains a broad array of possible outcomes.
In the best-case scenario, the Beavers win their remaining regular season game and win a bowl game to finish 8-5. In the worst case scenario, the Beavers lose their remaining three games, finish 4-8 and conclude the season on a seven game losing streak.
If the Beavers are going to get a bowl game, head coach Trent Bray then believes that the Beavers will need to improve their red zone efficiency.
“Against the offenses we’re going to play, you can’t…go three-for-seven,” Bray said.
In the five drives that the Beavers made it inside the Spartans 20 yard line, the Beavers’ efforts ended in either an interception, turnover on downs, field goal, touchdown, or fumble.
If the Beavers are to win, they will likely need to increase their offensive production, having scored only two touchdowns in their last eight quarters of play.
Passing against the Falcons may provide a challenge, as Air Force’s defense ranks 23rd among 134 FBS teams in yards allowed per game. If the Beavers are to end the game in the victory column, they will either need Gulbranson to have a breakout performance or see their running game return to its previously dominant form.
For the season, OSU ranks 17th in rushing yards per game. Air Force’s rushing defense ranks 103rd.
On offense, the Falcons are near the bottom, ranking 130th with 16.2 points per game. Oregon State’s defense ranks 98th, allowing 28.8 points per game.
The Beavers’ rushing attack has been hampered by the absence of running back Jam Griffin for half of the season.
With Griffin the Beavers are 4-1 and score exactly 30 points per game. Without Griffin, the Beavers are 0-4 and score 20.5 points per game.
The Beavers offensive coordinator, Ryan Gunderson, is planning on a game with few possessions.
“Usually, teams get about 13 possessions a game. We’ve been operating around 10 or 11 because…our drives have been longer. Usually, when you play a service academy, you’re going to get seven or eight. So it’s possessions…I think teams average 58 plays this year against them, which is low,” Gunderson said.
If Beavers take an early lead and force the Falcons to pass, their odds of winning will likely increase dramatically, as Air Force ranks 133rd out of 134 in college passer rating.
While it is possible that the Beavers can lose to Air Force and make a bowl game by defeating both the Cougars and Broncos, the odds do not seem to favor such an outcome. This is based on ESPN’s win probability for the Beavers in their final three games.
Using the multiplication rule of probability, we get the following probabilities for the Beavers winning two out of their three final games.
Given our table of outcomes, we can add all of the probabilities that the Beavers win two or more of their final three games. This gives us a 25.91% chance that Oregon State will make it to a bowl game.
When the Beavers take the field on Saturday, they will have the opportunity to not only end their losing streak, but put themselves in position to need one more win to qualify for a bowl game and make their season a success to many observers in the face of conference realignment.