Editor’s Note: This is a column and does not reflect the views or opinions of the Daily Barometer.
The Oregon State Beavers find themselves in a rather inauspicious position.
With the uncertainty of their long-term conference membership, the Beavers and the rest of the Pac-2 (Washington State University) will replace their conference schedule with teams from the Mountain West in 2024 and 2025.
Theoretically, this does little to their prospects of a College Football Playoff appearance; if the Beavers go undefeated, then one of the 12 spots will surely be theirs.
But do the Beavers need to go undefeated to claim one of the coveted slots in the CFP bracket?
They might.
The University of Oregon is by far the best team on the Beavers’ slate, but the Beavers’ schedule lacks strength.
Outside of Oregon, OSU’s opponents had a combined 62-71 record in 2023, including 22-42 on the road. This offers the Beavers a weak set of opponents. While it is the case that almost the entire coaching staff of the Beavers departed, their 2024 12-game schedule features only five teams with a winning record in 2023, and Oregon is the only team that won 10 games.
If the Beavers’ opponents play in 2024 as they did in 2023, OSU’s odds of a bowl game appearance are strong.
I’ll say 80%.
With the game against Oregon in Corvallis, the Beavers’ only road games against teams with a winning record in 2023 are the United States Air Force Academy and Boise State. Those are late in the season.
Now you might be thinking, “What? A team that just lost its starting QB, RB and (pretty much) its entire coaching staff is going 10-3? Josh, you are crazy!”
Perhaps I am.
So there we have it: I’m predicting the Beavers will finish 10-3 with a win in the Holiday Bowl.
They don’t play a road game against a team with a winning record from 2023 until November 16. That is a lot of time to prepare for what seems to be the meat and potatoes of their schedule. I’m not convinced that losing Jonathan Smith is all that bad. He was a pretty good coach, but he was 12-20 on the road during his tenure at OSU, not much to miss.
Will some of these teams take a quantum leap forward? They might, but that’s hard to predict.
As per being the Superstitious Statistician, I’m kind of superstitious that I have jinxed the Beavers but, statistically, that’s hogwash.
Probably.
